The Food Problem—And A Tasty New Solution

Imagine this: It is the year 2050, and Earth is buzzing with over 9 billion people. But there is a big challenge growing quietly—right on our dinner plates. The problem is that producing meat and dairy the way we do now is putting a lot of pressure on the planet [1]. Forests are being cut down, rivers are drying up, pollution from farming is damaging the soil and water, and many animals and plants are disappearing as their habitats are destroyed. Even though there is more food than ever, many people still go hungry [2]. We need tasty, and planet-friendly solutions before time runs out. So how can we all eat well without harming the Earth?

What if we could solve this problem by eating foods that look and taste like meat and dairy but are made from plants? Picture biting into a burger that looks, smells, and tastes like meat—but it is actually made from plants! This is already happening. These new foods, called novel plant-based foods, are made to feel just like eating meat or drinking milk. The plant-based food scene is expected to grow about 10% every year over the next decade—so you will see even more awesome options like chicken-free nuggets, oat milk ice cream, and even bacon made from mushrooms.

How is this possible? It all starts with plant proteins—usually from plants like soybeans or peas—which scientists and food developers transform into something that looks and tastes like the real deal. They mix the plant proteins with ingredients like fats, vitamins, minerals, and water [3]. This combination helps mimic the juiciness, flavor, and texture of animal-based products. Think of tofu, which has been a traditional plant-based food for centuries. Tofu is made from soybeans and is often used as a meat substitute because it can take on many flavors and has a similar texture to some meats. Novel plant-based foods take this idea further, using science to create foods that taste even closer to the real thing!

Novel plant-based foods need fewer inputs, like land and water, compared to meat and dairy. They also produce fewer greenhouse gases [4]. No cows mean no methane (a greenhouse gas) burps! But how much difference would it actually make if we all gradually replaced some of our meat and dairy with novel plant-based foods? We used a powerful computer model to find out. This model helps scientists study how changes, like switching to plant-based foods, could impact the environment, food supply, and greenhouse gases.

The Problem With The Way We Eat

First, we found that by the year 2050, producing meat and dairy will strain the planet even more than it does today (Figure 1). As the world’s population grows and people earn more money, the demand for animal-sourced foods is expected to rise a lot. For example, consumption of chicken might increase by 66% and milk by 49%. To meet this demand, we will need even more farmland to feed animals. This could destroy over 250 million hectares of forests and natural areas, leaving less space for wildlife and causing more greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. Farming also uses a lot of water and fertilizers, which can pollute rivers and oceans. Even though some regions might see better food supplies because of new farming technologies, many poorer people could still struggle to get enough food. These challenges show why we need better ways to produce food that are healthier for the planet and fairer for everyone.

How Much Difference Can Novel Plant-Based Foods Make?

We then looked into alternative diets and their consequences for the planet. We found that changing our diets by replacing some meat and dairy with novel plant-based foods could bring huge benefits for the future environment. If everyone starts gradually switching their habits today, with the aim of eventually replacing just half of their animal-based foods (like meat and milk), the impacts of farming can drop significantly. Let us have a closer look at the year 2050 in this alternative world.

First, water and fertilizer use would go down. Replacing half of animal foods with plant-based options could save 291 billion cubic meters of water per year—enough to fill 116 million Olympic-sized swimming pools! This switch would also reduce nitrogen use (in fertilizers) by 34 million tons a year, which could fill about 1.4 million large trucks. This would lead to cleaner water and healthier ecosystems (Figure 2).

Greenhouse gas emissions from farming would also drop. Farming and land-use changes, like deforestation, are some of the biggest contributors to climate change. Under the current path, emissions from farming are expected to rise by 15% in 2050. But with plant-based substitutions, emissions would drop by 31%—a reduction of 2.1 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2050. This is equal to taking over 450 million cars off the road.

Another great result is that much less land would be needed for farming. That means forests and wild places could finally stop shrinking and stabilize compared to today’s levels. Instead of turning more land into farms (like the 4% increase we are on track for now), we could actually shrink farmland by 12%. This would free up about 653 million hectares of land—an area nearly twice the size of India. If we go the extra mile and turn that land back into forests, the benefits get even better—we could remove an extra 3.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the air in 2050. That is comparable to removing about 717 million more cars! In addition, replanting forests also gives wildlife a chance to thrive and helps heal the planet. It is a big win for nature, and a big step toward saving endangered species and reaching global goals to protect our environment (Figure 3).

Finally, food security would also improve. Because crops could be grown more efficiently to feed people directly, food would become more available and cheaper. That means fewer people would go hungry. In fact, about 31 million fewer people could be undernourished—roughly the combined population of Australia and New Zealand.

It is clear that changing what we eat can make a big difference—but the effects are not the same everywhere in the world. For example, Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, and Latin America are key to saving forests and planting new trees, helping to lock away carbon. Even though people in these regions do not consume as much meat and milk as other regions of the world, these regions still drive more than half of global emissions reductions by 2050. There are many reasons for these differences. What matters is not only how many people live there and what they eat, but also how much food and feed they trade. We found that cutting beef consumption has some of the biggest benefits for emissions reduction and land use. As a result, countries with a lot of beef production, like Brazil, see the largest impacts.

Brazil is also home to the Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest, which spans several countries in South America—but the majority, ~60%, is located within Brazil. The Amazon Rainforest is significantly affected by meat production, primarily through deforestation driven by cattle ranching and soybean farming to feed animals. This causes a lot of problems for nature and the environment. For example, it destroys habitats, leading to the loss of countless plant and animal species unique to the Amazon. Since Brazil is a major exporter of animal feed and beef, it feels the effects of dietary changes in other parts of the world. This is why changing our own food habits can save animals in the Amazon, no matter where we live!

The Future of Food

Switching to plant-based foods can be challenging for some people. Many people do not think plant-based foods taste quite like the real thing, and they can sometimes be more expensive. However, as more people choose these options, companies can improve the taste and lower prices, making plant-based foods more accessible to everyone. Cultural habits are another challenge. Meat is deeply embedded in many traditional dishes and giving it up can feel like a big change. The good news is that chefs and food creators are coming up with creative ways to incorporate plant-based ingredients into familiar recipes, making the transition easier and more enjoyable.

It is really important to understand how much our food choices matter. Even small changes in what we eat can make a big difference. While our study showed that switching to novel plant-based foods would make a positive impact, this is also true for traditional plant-based foods, like tofu or legumes. They are great protein sources too. We also do not have to completely stop eating meat—skipping meat on some days of the week would be a fantastic start. Swapping out beef for more sustainable meat like chicken would also be an improvement. As we explore plant-based foods, we need to make sure to balance our diets by including a variety of nutrients to stay healthy (see here or here). Finally, as you learn more about how plant-based foods can benefit the planet, share that knowledge with others. The more people who understand the impact of their food choices on the environment, the more likely these changes will spread and help create a better future for everyone.

The future of food is exciting! With science and creativity, we can create meals that are tasty, healthy, and good for the planet. Whether it is a tofu stir-fry, hummus, or a bowl of oat milk with cereal, every small change adds up to a big impact. Together, we can feed the planet while saving it for animals, plants, and future generations.

Glossary

Novel Plant-based Foods: ↑ Foods made from plants that look, taste, and feel like meat or dairy, like plant-based burgers or dairy-free milk.

Proteins: ↑ Nutrients our bodies need to grow and stay strong. Found in foods like meat, beans, soy, and peas.

Greenhouse Gases: ↑ Gases that trap heat in the air and cause climate change, like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Computer Model: ↑ A computer program scientists use to test ideas and predict things like future food needs or climate effects.

Deforestation: ↑ Cutting down forests to make space for things like farming. This can harm animals and increase climate change.

CO₂ Equivalent: ↑ A way to compare different greenhouse gases by showing how much carbon dioxide they are equal to in warming the planet.

Food Security: ↑ When everyone always has access to enough healthy, nutritious food and no one goes hungry.

Conflict of Interest

Author CD was employed by Kingdown Advisors LLC. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the European Union under grant agreement number 101060483 – SWITCH (https://switchdiet.eu/) and grant agreement number 101081617 – CHOICE (https://www.climatechoice.eu/).