Abstract
Have you ever considered how the products you buy and consume can shape the environment and society far beyond your immediate surroundings? Every purchase carries hidden consequences. In many cases, buying certain goods can affect people and the environment in another country, influencing their development toward a healthier, fairer future. These cross-border consequences are known as spillover impacts. They include greenhouse-gas emissions, water consumption, land degradation, biodiversity loss, and other environmental pressures generated during the production process in exporting countries, rather than in the countries where the final products are consumed. To trace these distant effects, researchers use a modeling technique that maps interactions between industries and countries, allowing them to estimate the environmental and social pressures created by traded goods. Such tools help reveal the true global footprint of the things we buy and use every day.
What is the Impact of Everyday Products We Buy?
Did you know that the things people buy and consume every day can affect both the environment and people’s lives all over the world? When we buy and use products—like food, clothes, phones, or furniture—there are hidden impacts elsewhere, often called spillover impacts. For example, the demand for phones in one country can result in carbon emissions in other countries.
In this article, I outline findings from two studies that I led with collaborators from international universities and from the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network [1, 2]. Our work showed that international trade (when countries buy and sell things from each other) causes many environmental and social impacts. These include greenhouse gas emissions that warm our planet and cause other major changes to climate and weather, excessive water and land use, loss of plants and animals (biodiversity), and can even result in accidents that happen to the workers making those products—some of which can lead to loss of lives.
How Trade Affects Global Goals
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a set of 17 global goals that countries around the world agreed to work on together. These goals include both targets and indicators that can be used to measure progress toward the targets. SDG1, for example, aims to end poverty, and SDG2 aims to end hunger. There are also SDGs for protecting Earth’s ecosystems and making sure everyone has a fair chance for a good life.
How do the SDGs come into play in the context of international trade? As a simple example of international trade, cars made in Japan might be bought in Australia, and coffee beans grown in Brazil might end up in your local café. This global exchange helps countries develop their economies and supports livelihoods for many people, but these connections have complicated hidden effects. So, it is important to study supply chains to uncover and understand these hidden effects.
As an example of a supply chain, think of a chocolate bar: cocoa beans might be grown in Ghana, sugar might come from Brazil, and the wrapping could be made in China; then everything is brought together in a factory and eventually shipped to your local shop. Each step in that journey—growing, making, transporting, and selling—has environmental and social impacts. Which energy and resources are used at every step, and what impact can they have on the environment? What about people working in various industries, from growing to packaging to transporting? When supply chains stretch across many countries, we call them global supply chains. Global supply chains show how connected our world is.
Studying the Impacts of Global Supply Chains
Researchers can use specialized modeling techniques to understand global supply chain interactions and the impacts of those interactions on the environment and society. One such technique is called multi-regional input-output analysis (MRIOA) [3]. MRIOA works a bit like a big map of the flow of money. The map has rows and columns. Each row shows how an industry supplies goods or services to others, while each column shows what inputs (energy and raw materials) an industry purchases to produce its output (the product). For example, the steel industry supplies metal to car manufacturers, and buys energy for production and raw materials like iron ore and coal from upstream suppliers. By linking these flows across regions, MRIOA traces how consumption in one place drives production and environmental impacts elsewhere.
We used a global international trade model to show how money moves between different regions of the global economy (e.g., interactions between the manufacturing sector of one country with the service sector of another country) affecting ecosystems and livelihoods. The model also included information about the environment and society, such as the amount of greenhouse gas emissions created, water use, land use for farming or factories, biodiversity threats to plants and animals, and social impacts on workers and communities.
The MRIOA calculations accounted for not just the direct effects but also indirect effects, like how much pollution is generated in India by producing products that are exported to other countries. In short, MRIOA helped us see the hidden ripple effects of global trade, showing how people’s choices in one place can affect people and the planet far away.
Links Between International Trade and SDGs
Using high-performance computers, we analyzed data from 1990 to 2018, comparing trends between the Global North and Global South, to study how international trade affects progress toward SDGs. We found that trade can produce both polarizing trends, where some countries benefit while others are harmed, and equalizing trends, where trade helps balance opportunities and supports fairer growth.
Overall, for most SDGs, global consumption has led to polarizing effects, which are hindering progress toward SDGs at both national and global levels (Figure 1). Equalizing trends were observed for only two SDGs: SDG1 (No Poverty) and SDG8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The remaining SDGs displayed polarizing trends, with SDG13 (Climate Action) among the strongest in terms of polarization.
- Figure 1 - International trade causes both polarizing and equalizing trends as assessed by indicators of progress toward United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
- Each dot shows one country’s result. The SDG logo shows the average result across all countries. You can see that most trends are polarizing, while only a few are equalizing [Figure designed based on (Ref 1)].
To explore this further, we examined country-to-country interactions. Over the period studied, China experienced rapid growth, producing goods and services that supported foreign consumption (Figure 2). It is also worth noting that for certain commodities, such as food products, there can be environmental spillover impacts worldwide (Figure 3) [2]. Prior studies have also highlighted this pattern, in which developed countries “outsource” carbon-intensive production to developing countries, causing environmental and social impacts [4].
- Figure 2 - A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions for different industries in China and United Kingdom.
- (A) Emissions are rising in China, mostly due to industrialization and growth of manufacturing. (B) The United Kingdom, a trading partner with China, is experiencing a decline in emissions. These data show the stark contrast in emission trajectories of the two economies, which illustrates the unequal distribution and externalization of consumption-driven emissions through global trade and supply chains [Figure designed based on (Ref. 1)].
- Figure 3 - Demand for food products by the European Union (EU) has wide-ranging spillover impacts globally, as seen here for carbon dioxide emissions.
- The Y axis shows the extent of the impact and the X axis shows production layers, which are upstream supply chain layers that capture production of goods. The various colors represent the specific countries impacted. Overall, you can see that most environmental impacts are felt by other countries that support the EU’s demand for food [Figure credit: (Ref. 2)].
why does this Research Matter?
Research in supply chain assessments emphasizes that if the SDGs are to be achieved by 2030, countries must consider the effects of their actions beyond their own borders. The polarizing (negative) and equalizing (positive) effects of international trade can include economic growth, which reduces poverty and improves living standards, or pollution, resource depletion, and negative social consequences.
Currently, most of the indicators used to assess progress toward SDGs do not take cross-border impacts into account. For example, the material footprint (the total amount of raw materials extracted worldwide to produce the goods and services for consumption) assessed under SDGs 8 and 12 is currently the only indicator that measures supply chain-wide resource use. This research clearly shows that the collection of environmental, social, and economic indicators should be expanded, to allow countries to see how their demand for goods and services influences environmental and social outcomes worldwide. This will provide a more complete picture of progress toward the SDGs.
Emissions and other environmental impacts are different for different countries, resulting in “hotspots” where environmental harm is becoming particularly severe as international trade grows over time. Footprint assessments can inform strategies to reduce these negative effects, including carbon emissions and social risks. However, carbon footprints are not yet part of the SDG framework. Including supply chain-wide data for all relevant SDGs would allow countries to understand the consequences of their consumer demand on other nations—for example, how consumption in developed countries affects working conditions in developing countries. This research provides evidence that global trade has increased the outsourcing of environmental and social impacts, such as emissions and occupational hazards, underlining the need for responsibility across borders in achieving the SDGs.
In summary, the five key takeaway messages from this research are:
• Consumers have global impact: what we buy affects the local environment, resources, and communities in other countries.
• Every purchase carries a hidden cost: products have impacts such as emissions, water use, land use, and work-related accidents that occur far from where products are consumed.
• Global supply chains connect us all: we are all in a complex web connecting producers and consumers.
• Sustainability is a shared responsibility: protecting our ecosystems is not just the responsibility of producers or consumers—everyone has a role to play.
• Spillover impacts are significant: impacts are invisible so it is easy to overlook them, but they need to be tracked and monitored.
By working together with industries, organizations, policymakers, and communities to measure and address the hidden impacts of trade, we can protect ecosystems, enhance sustainability, and support a more resilient and equitable future for everyone.
Glossary
International Trade: ↑ Exchange of goods, services, and resources between countries in the form of imports and exports.
Emissions: ↑ Gases, such as carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, and resulting in the warming of the planet.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): ↑ Seventeen global targets adopted by the United Nations, covering a range of areas such as ending poverty, protecting the planet, and promoting peace and prosperity.
Indicators: ↑ Measures used in supply chain analysis to evaluate environmental, social, and economic impacts across production and consumption systems, ultimately permitting sustainability to be assessed.
Supply Chain: ↑ The journey a product takes, from the raw materials all the way to the consumer.
Carbon Footprint: ↑ The total greenhouse gas emissions generated directly and indirectly by an activity, product, organization, or supply chain.
Sustainability: ↑ Management of environmental, social, and economic systems to meet present needs without compromising future generations’ ability to meet their needs and maintaining long-term ecological and societal well-being.
Conflict of Interest
The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Ryan (16 years old) for his thoughtful contribution to the review process. Ryan is a high school student with a strong passion for mathematics and science. He leads the math and science clubs at his school and has participated in a wide range of academic competitions. His natural curiosity about the world and eagerness to ask questions reflect the qualities of a promising future scientist. In his free time, Ryan enjoys playing basketball and volleyball, volunteering with outdoor hiking programs, and organizing activities that bring people together. I am grateful for his enthusiasm, insight, and engagement throughout the review process. The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Frontiers Research Foundation for advancing research on international trade and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
AI Tool Statement
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Original Source Article
↑Malik, A., Lenzen, M., Li, M., Mora, C., Carter, S., Giljum, S., et al. 2024. Polarising and equalising trends in international trade and Sustainable Development Goals. Nat. Sustain. 7:1359–70. doi: 10.1038/s41893-024-01397-5
References
[1] ↑ Malik, A., Lenzen, M., Li, M., Mora, C., Carter, S., Giljum, S., et al. 2024. Polarising and equalising trends in international trade and Sustainable Development Goals. Nat. Sustain. 7:1359–70. doi: 10.1038/s41893-024-01397-5
[2] ↑ Malik, A., Lafortune, G., Dahir, S., Wendling, Z. A., Kroll, C., Carter, S., et al. 2023. Global environmental and social spillover effects of EU’s food trade. Glob. Sustain. 6:e6. doi: 10.1017/sus.2023.4
[3] ↑ Miller, R. E., and Blair, P.D. 2022. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. 3rd edn. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/9781108676212
[4] ↑ Wiedmann, T., and Lenzen, M. 2018. Environmental and social footprints of international trade. Nat. Geosci. 11:314–21. doi: 10.1038/s41561-018-0113-9